Monday 30 May 2011

RATINGS UPDATE AT 2011/6, AFTER MONACO

The Ratings data are updated after each race, and running totals calculated. Definitive ratings are most accurate as season averages. The developing pattern after the sixth race is summarised below. The figure 100.0 is fastest, slower numbers increasing thereafter as 100.1, 100.2 and so on. The numbers can be taken as factors, as percentages or as lap times based on 100.0 seconds as the fastest.

THE CARS

After six races,the McLaren-Mercedes has improved to within 0.3 secs/lap of the Red Bull-Renault; Ferrari remains at 0.9 secs/lap adrift. Next up are Renault at 1.0 second, Sauber-Ferrari 1.1 and Mercedes 1.2 seconds per lap.

What is amazing is the race pace that Alonso is getting! In 2009 when he was struggling in a slow Renault (rated 100.9), he managed so many, daring overtaking moves. This when Kimi Raikkonen, in a far faster Ferrari (rated 100.5) reckoned ‘you just can’t overtake today.’ and quite often sat behind another competitor for laps on end.  Fernando’s last two starts of 2011, Spain and Monaco, are indicative of his great competitiveness.

THE PACKAGES

As a package, Hamilton/McLaren-Mercedes at 100.3 is second to Vettel/Red Bull-Renault and faster than Webber/Red Bull-Renault!  Webber/Red Bull and the evergreen Button/McLaren tie for third best on 100.5. Alonso/Ferrari rates at a whopping 100.9 ,as a season average so far! Interestingly Massa/Ferrari and Rosberg/Mercedes are close on 101.2 and 101.3 respectively. The improving Michael Schumacher/Mercedes is next at 101.5, with the Heidfeld, Petrov Renaults and Kobayashi’s Sauber all on 101,6. The Toro-Rossos and Force Indias are bracketed at 102.2 to 102.6, with outstanding rookie di Resta slightly faster than Sutil. We are talking one-hundredths of a second here.

THE DRIVERS

Driverwise Alonso, Hamilton and Vettel still rate equal fastest at 100.0. Rosberg is next and very close at 100.1, Button at his best ever of 100.2. Massa and Schumacher share 100.4. Kobayashi improves to 100.5, up with Webber and Barrichello.

The next group on 100.6 comprise Petrov, Heidfeld, di Resta, Kovalainen and Glock. Sutil and Buemi are on  100.7, while Trulli  drops to 100.9, tied with Alguersuari; Liuzzi remains on 100.8. The other rookies this season have all been so impressive: Maldonado on 100.8, Perez and older rookie Karthikeyan on 101.1 and d’Ambrosio at a creditable 101.3. Considering the lack of testing available, these first season ratings are remarkable.


© Patrick O’Brien 2011. Nothing from this page can be used without the permission of Patrick E. O’Brien.

***

Sunday 22 May 2011

HOW DO DRIVERS OF 80 YEARS AGO COMPARE WITH TODAY’S?

Driver Ratings COMPARED: 1930 vs. 2010 Seasons

Nuvolari


Because the Rating System has been consistently devised from and applied to the major grand prix races from 1894, it is possible to compare drivers across eras. The figures are car-neutral. Here the top drivers from 2010 are rated in table form with those of the 1930 season. The exercise proved revealing and thought-provoking.


Caracciola

How would the drivers of 80 years ago compare? They raced in trousers, shirts or jerseys and everyday, leather, lace-up shoes; drove solid-axle, cart-sprung machines on rough, mostly un-surfaced, public roads. How could they compare with today’s focussed, superfit, businesslike and media-savvy professionals? Grouped in the table below are the top 16 from 1930 and 20 from 2010:


.

Driver ratings

100.0
1930
Caracciola, Chiron, Nuvolari, Arcangeli, Varzi

2010
Alonso, Hamilton, Vettel
100.1
1930
-

2010
Webber
100.2
1930
-

2010
Rosberg, Kubica
100.3
1930
-

2010
-
100.4
1930
-

2010
Massa, Button, Barrichello
100.5
1930
Dreyfus, Birkin, Morandi, Montier F

2010
Schumacher M, Trulli, Glock
100.6
1930
Campari

2010
Sutil, Heidfeld, Kovalainen, Kobayashi
100.7
1930
Divo

2010
Buemi
100.8
1930
Fagioli, Maggi, Nenzioni C, Brivio, Bouriat

2010
de la Rosa, Liuzzi, Alguersuari

<><>
Maserati 8C2500

Driving Standards

Before there are objections that the ‘oldtimers’ were amateurish sportsmen and cannot be compared with the professional, dedicated Schumachers and Alonsos of today, consider this:

In winning the 1930 Targa Florio with a supercharged, two litre, beam-axled, leaf-sprung, P2/30 Alfa Romeo, Varzi covered  the five, 108 kilometre laps in 6 hours and 55 minutes.  Each 81-minute lap on the narrow, mountainous, rough, gravel roads must have been like a rally special stage. Yet Varzi’s lap times never varied by more than six seconds! That would be the equivalent of 0.125 secs a lap on one of today’s super-smooth, artificial circuits. This exceptional level of driving artistry must have been matched by Louis Chiron on his Bugatti 35B, who finished second, just 1m 48 secs behind. Chiron had actually been leading Varzi on the last lap, when he slid off the road and lost time. Could Fangio, Clark, Stewart, Senna, Schumacher or Alonso and Vettel have done better against Varzi and Chiron that day?

Varzi

Seasons Compared

The table shows five drivers in 1930 racing at the ultimate pace of 100.0, against the three of 2010. Caracciola, Chiron, Nuvolari, Arcangeli and Varzi versus Alonso, Hamilton and Vettel. Only two seasons had five drivers rated at the top: 1930 and 1931.

Comparing  1930 with the 2010 season here, there is no significant difference in the number of drivers racing within 0.8% of the front: 16 in 1930 and 20 in 2010.

The big difference between the two seasons is the dearth of 1930s men racing in the 100.1 to 100.4 bracket. This is the zone in which many of Formula One’s very competitive drivers raced: from Gonzalez, Brooks, Amon, Rindt, Andretti, Ickx, Regazzoni, Scheckter and Jones to Hakkinen, Coulthard, Button, Kubica and Rosberg. Many of the earlier drivers were amateurs or semi-professionals. Perhaps they were not as prepared to risk their machinery as much or were simply not as talented, skilled or competitive. There would then also have been greater differences in the quality of the number one team cars and those of the other team members. Today’s teams are able to provide very close-matched cars. Additionally in earlier times, privately-owned cars were usually a lot slower than works machines. 

The 100.5 group, matching Dreyfus, Birkin, Morandi and Montier with Michael Schumacher, Trulli and Glock is still a competitive one. It was at this rating that F1 Champions, Graham and Damon Hill, Jacques Villeneueve and Emerson Fittipaldi raced when gaining their titles.

Bugatti 35B

Conclusions

So, the ‘midfield’ of today, those racing within 100.1 to 100.4 of the ultimate pace, is  stronger than it was 80 years ago. For those in the next or slower 100.5 to 100.8 range, the seasons are matched with 11 for 1930 and 11 for 2010. But what of those racing at the front? Would Alonso, Hamilton and Vettel have done as well as Chiron, Nuvolari and Varzi in the roughness of the Targa Florio? How would the top drivers of 1930 have coped at high-tech Abu Dhabi in 2010?  I reckon they would all be very close-matched, having the similar competitive mindsets and outstanding talents.

Chiron






© Patrick O’Brien 2011. Nothing from this page can be used without the permission of Patrick E. O’Brien.

Sunday 15 May 2011

VETTEL AND SCHUMACHER: Ratings Compared

Sebastian Vettel is rated with Alonso and Hamilton as one of today’s fastest drivers. Now into his fifth season, how do his Ratings compare with Michael Schumacher’s?

Schumacher reigned for many seasons as the driver to beat. However it was not his driving talent alone which was responsible. Much of his success came from his skill at melding his team around him, in carefully selecting or specifying non-threatening team-mates, and his passion for being involved in the development of the car. This does not downgrade Michael as a driver, for all skills contribute and each driver is different. All dominant drivers had to have good car/teams, from Fangio and Moss through to Alonso and Vettel. No driver ever dominated or won much with a less than top-rate car.

The Driver Ratings table compares Vettel and Schumacher. The figure 100.0 is the ultimate or fastest:
Season 1
Season 2
Season 3
Season 4
Season 5
Season 6
Season 7
Season 8
Season 9
Season 10
Season 11
Season 12
Season 13
Season 14
Season 15
Season 16
Season -
Season -
Season -
Season 17
Season 18
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Schumacher
Schumacher
Schumacher
Schumacher
Schumacher
Schumacher
Schumacher
Schumacher
Schumacher
Schumacher
Schumacher
Schumacher
Schumacher
Schumacher
Schumacher
Schumacher
Retired
Retired
Retired
Schumacher
Schumacher
100.6
100.5
100.4
100.2
100.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.1
100.1
100.1
100.1
100.1
-
-
-
100.6
100.3
















2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
















Vettel
Vettel
Vettel
Vettel
Vettel
















100.7
100.5
100.3
100.2
100.0

Purely on length of career Sebastian has some way to go! But he did start off virtually as fast as Michael in his first season and rose to ultimate pace within four seasons. Two seasons earlier than Michael. Is Vettel is more talented as driver? Did his early funding and nurturing by Red Bull help? Does his youthfulness count? Difficult to asess.

Whatever their differences, these two German drivers would have been close-matched had they faced each other in same-cars while peaking. Since the beginning of racing in the eighteen-hundreds, my rating System study has shown that top-rate drivers when in same cars, are so close-matched. Usually they have only been separated by judicious managing of pitstops! This was blatantly done by the great Alfa Romeo team manager -engineer Vittorio Jano in 1932. In the interests of the Team and politics, he had to control his equally-matched star drivers, Nuvolari and Caracciola.

It is my contention that the car/team are more important than the driver. If Vettel was in a Ferrari or Mercedes this season, he would not have won a race. Alonso and Hamilton, and probably Rosberg, would however have won in a Red Bull-Renault.

One cannot compare drivers at differing stages in their careers. Michael has undoubtedly slowed; not surprising at age 43. The natural slowing process will happen to Vettel too, should he have a long career. Just as it did with other greats, from de Palma, Nuvolari, Fangio and Prost to Senna. 

Schumacher raced at ultimate pace for six seasons 1996 to 2001. This phenomenal record was matched only by Moss, Clark and Senna, and pre-war by Chiron. Vettel has to be at the top until 2015 to match these stats.


© Patrick O’Brien 2011. Nothing from this page can be used without the permission of Patrick E. O’Brien.

***

Monday 9 May 2011

FANGIO AND MOSS: A Revelation

This is just one of the many surprising revelations uncovered when applying the Rating System.

Statistically in percentage terms, Fangio achieved the best figures of any Formula One driver, Senna and Michael Schumacher included. The Argentinian won almost every second race and started from pole in 54 % of them. This in a F1 career lasting from 1950 to 1958, when he was aged 39 to 47. He won five Drivers Championships, for four different manufacturers: Alfa Romeo in 1951, Mercedes-Benz in 1954-55, Lancia-Ferrari in 1956, and finally for Maserati in 1957 at age 46. He is considered by many to have been the greatest driver of all time.

This opinion has been bolstered by Stirling Moss, Juan Manuel Fangio’s  team-mate  in 1955,and from 1956 his greatest rival. Moss stated that “Fangio was virtually unbeatable in grand prix cars”.

It was in late-1954 when for the first time, driving for Maserati at Monza, Moss had a car that was able to challenge the best drivers of the time, Fangio and Ascari. He’d have won had his Maserati 250F/54 not fractured an oil pipe when leading near the end. For 1956 Moss managed two wins for Maserati against Fangio’s three for Lancia-Ferrari. In 1957, the year of Fangio’s fifth Title, Stirling won three times for Vanwall to Fangio’s four for Maserati. Juan remained the acknowledged master. Especially after his phenomenal 1957 German victory on the Nurburgring, when after a delayed pitstop, he chased down the Lancia-Ferraris of Hawthorn and Collins, to win his greatest race. Fangio said “I will never drive like that again!”

My Ratings however, revealed a different slant on those seasons. By separating driver from car, the Ratings showed that Moss was actually the fastest driver of all from 1956 onwards! Fangio had the advantage of the fastest cars:  the 1956 Lancia-Ferrari and the 1957 Maserati 250F/57.  Moss was hampered by his Maserati 250F/56 and the Vanwall/57, which were up to 0.7% off the pace of Fangio’s cars. That is 0.7 seconds per 100.0-second lap. Not even Moss’ brilliance or late-twenties youthfulness could overcome this penalty.

Which is why Fangio in his mid-forties was able to take two more titles. Package  speeds  are determined by adding the Driver Rating to that of his Car Rating. Arithmetically then, Moss-and-his-car packages in those two seasons were just too far off-pace.

Unpopular as this exposition may be, it is further validated by one race in early 1957, the Argentinian Grand Prix. This was the unique opportunity to compare Fangio and Moss directly in same-cars. Vanwall’s not being ready, Moss had been released to drive for his old team, Maserati, where the new number one was Fangio! Fireworks expected.

In qualifying Moss’s pole time was a phenomenal 1.1 seconds faster than Fangio’s and 1.4 seconds up on the other Maserati team driver, Behra! Unfortunately Stirling’s accelerator linkage broke at the start. After a 9-lap pitstop for repairs, he typically charged out and made up a whole lap on winner Fangio, set fastest lap, but only managed an eighth place finish. What a convincing showing.

For the rest of the seven-race 1957 season, Moss was number one for the fast- improving and well-funded Vanwall Team. However for Maserati, Fangio won the first three events in-a-row before scoring a fourth win in the epic German GP. Moss shared the British GP win with Brooks, and then won the last two events at Pescara and Monza, where Fangio placed second each time to clinch his fifth Title.

Almost all commentators and posterity attribute Fangio’s fifth title to his superior driving genius.

The Ratings however, show that it was his car that was superior in 1956 and 1957. Fangio’s Lancia-Ferrari of 1956 was between 0.3 and 0.8 better than the three versions of Maserati 250F used by Moss. For 1957 the completely re-designed Maserati 250F/57 driven by Fangio was by far the fastest car of the season. And Fangio had the skills and vast experience to exploit it, despite being a ‘slower’ driver than Moss by this stage. Slower does not mean less skilful; Fangio was the grand-master of car-control, racing finesse, psychology and tactics.

The Driver Ratings tables for the two men:


Season 1
Season 2
Season 3
Season 4
Season 5
Season 6
Season 7
1950
1951
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
Fangio
Fangio
Fangio
Fangio
Fangio
Fangio
Fangio
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.1
100.2
100.3
100.4
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
Moss
Moss
Moss
Moss
Moss
Moss
Moss
100.0
100.8
100.7
100.4
100.3
100.0
100.0

Moss went on to race at the ultimate level (his six seasons, matching Senna), until his unfortunate, career-ending crash in 1962. Fangio raced just twice in 1958 gaining two fourth places for Maserati, before retiring. This last season had him racing at a Driver Rating of 100.5, about the same gap from the front as were Fittipaldi or Graham Hill in their Championship-winning seasons. Certainly one of the greatest drivers of all time, but finally the baton passed to his greatest rival, fan and friend Stirling Moss.


© Patrick O’Brien 2011. Nothing from this page can be used without the permission of Patrick E. O’Brien.

***