Tuesday 7 October 2014

RICCIARDO BEATING VETTEL

2014 Daniel Ricciardo
Many people were surprised when Daniel Ricciardo, new Red Bull-Renault team-mate to Sebastian Vettel for 2014, started beating the four-time World Champion. Along with many, I thought that Vettel would soon get back on top. Yet at race 14 this has not happened. Ricciardo has been ahead eight times, in the ten races when both finished, to Vettel’s two. Ricciardo has won three races, Vettel none.

The impression created is of a virtual rookie dethroning a four-time World Champion. Incredible, especially when one considers that Vettel utterly dominated the 2011 and 2013 seasons and scored the most points in 2010 and 2012. His first win was in 2008 and his last came at the end of an exceptional nine consecutive wins at the end of the 2013 season. Vettel had won 39 races, almost as many as Mansell.

Ricciardo by comparison was a relative unknown. He started in F1 halfway through the 2011 season with the backmarker Hispania-Cosworth team, moved closer to midgrid with Toro Rosso-Ferrari for 2012-2013. Ricciardo’s best placings were 18th in 2011, two 9ths in 2012 and two 7ths in 2013. Measured against his team-mates:

2011: Ricciardo ahead in races (when both finished) 4 times to Liuzzi’s 1.
2012: Ricciardo ahead in races (when both finished) 8 times to Vergne’s 7.
2013: Ricciardo and Vergne were equal, each being 5 times ahead in races (when both finished).

Going by these simple stats, it did not seem as if Ricciardo was anything special. Of course the Red Bull-Toro Rosso experts knew more and promoted him to the Red Bull-Renault Team for 2014.

Vettel had been with Toro Rosso since 2007, scored his first win in 2008 and was promoted to the Red Bull-Renault team for 2009. Vettel had looked special from the start in 2007 when he beat the experienced Liuzzi and then drove impressively in a one-off race for BMW, showing well against his fast, experienced team-mate Nick Heidfeld.

Many questioned Vettel’s ability when he defeated his Red Bull-Renault veteran team-mate Webber in 2009 and 2010. However for 2011, 2012 and 2013 he was clearly faster by some margin. Webber was no slouch, proven by his several superb wins, particularly at Monaco and Silverstone. Vettel managed all aspects of his Red Bull-Renault cars superbly, his speed and talent being highlighted by his many late qualifying laps for pole (46 poles in 7 seasons), as well as by his cheeky fastest laps (22 in 6 seasons) set at the end of almost every race, his eye on the record books! This despite his stressed race engineer Rocky urging him to slow down and make sure the car finished!

How then could newboy Ricciardo in 2014 be the faster racer for 8 of the 14 races to date, while Vettel finished ahead only twice?

Experts attribute Vettel’s falling from top-rate form to his being uneasy with the lack of rear downforce exiting corners. This was due to new technical regulations which reduced the aerodynamic use of rear bodywork diffusers. Another part of the reason is that Ricciardo has obviously taken a step up, and is at home in the car as well as displaying sound racing maturity. According to Toro Rosso team principal, the astute and experienced Franz Tost, Vettel managed a big step up in performance for 2011. This I noticed by my driver-rating against his then team-mate Webber, compared with 2010.

This exceptional phenomenon of a new, younger driver Ricciardo, upstaging a talented old hand like Vettel: has it happened before? A look back through Grand Prix history is always informative for placing things in context.

2008 Lewis Hamilton
2007 HAMILTON EQUALS ALONSO

For the 2007 season it was an actual F1 rookie, Hamilton who equalled his twice World Champion team-mate Alonso at McLaren-Mercedes. Alonso had been racing since 2001 and was into his 6th season when he joined McLaren-Mercedes for 2007. He had won back-to-back titles with Renault in 2005-6 and in 2006 had tellingly gone head-to-head with Michael Schumacher in virtually equal cars, Renault and Ferrari respectively. Alonso scored 6 poles to Schumacher’s 4 and won the races narrowly with 7 wins to 6. There was no doubting Alonso’s ability.

Yet from the first race for McLaren-Mercedes in 2007, the 22-year-old rookie Hamilton performed close to the 26-year-old double Champion Alonso. Alonso was ahead 9:6 in the races when both finished, but Hamilton scored 6 poles to Alonso’s 2, each won 4 races. A phenomenal performance for a rookie.

Contemporary Formula One commentators hailed this as the greatest rookie feat of all time.

Grand Prix racing however went back a long way before the inauguration of the Formula One Championship in 1950. It can be said to have started in 1894, and included over 300 top-class races until 1949. Having measured and compared each of the 2000-plus competitors from 1894-2013 on a consistent basis in my Rating System, some interesting phenomena were revealed.

1934 Guy Moll
1934 MOLL CHALLENGES VARZI AND CHIRON

The closest pattern of similarities to the Ricciardo-Vettel situation of 2014 occurred 80 years ago in 1934. The Alfa Romeo team had dominated since 1932, with top drivers Nuvolari and Caracciola in 1932 and Nuvolari and Chiron in 1933. For 1934 Nuvolari had left, and the team were led by Varzi and Chiron, who could be said to have been the equivalent of Alonso and Schumacher in 2006 or Alonso and Hamilton in 2014. Varzi was 24 in 1934, an ex-motorcycle racer who Enzo Ferrari reckoned ‘was Nuvolari’s equal from 1930 to 1934’. Chiron was 33 and as fast as both Varzi and Nuvolari.

Young Algerian Guy Moll started Grand Prix racing in 1932 and showed enough promise to be invited to join the strong Alfa Romeo team for 1934 at age 25.
Just as Ricciardo was to do in 2014, Moll was instantly fast, running second behind Chiron at Monaco until Chiron slid into the barrier at the Station Hairpin on the 98th lap of 100, allowing Moll past to win. At the high-speed Tripoli race Moll almost passed winner Varzi on the last lap, just failing by 0.2- second at the flag. The next race was at the even faster banked autobahn circuit AVUS, outside Berlin. Varzi and Chiron had the standard, open-wheel-bodied Alfa Romeo 8C2900Bs, while Moll was given one with an aerodynamically-shaped body that was 20 kmh/12 mph faster on the straights. After the faster Auto-Union had retired by lap 10 of 15, Moll took over at the front and beat Varzi by 1m 27s, although not a straight comparison due to Moll’s faster car. This dangerous circuit took some skill where the race average was 206 kmh/128 mph compared with Tripoli’s 186 kmh/115 mph race speed. Next came the Marne GP at Reims, where all drove the standard bodied Alfa Romeos, but Moll was beaten by Chiron into second place by a lap. Initially Varzi and Chiron had battled each other furiously for the lead for 41 of the 64 laps until Varzi’s gearbox gave trouble. The next meeting of the Alfa Romeo drivers was at the slow, tortuous Ciano Cup circuit in Livorno. Here Varzi won by 9-seconds from Moll, Chiron not being present.

Tragically the next event at Pescara for the Coppa Acerbo, was to be Moll’s last. Outclassed by the Auto-Union and Mercedes-Benz teams, especially on the 10km/6 mile straight along the Adriatic coast, the Alfa Romeos chased hard, Moll then Chiron running behind the three or four German cars for 5 of the 20 laps. Chiron then went up to third place but his car caught fire during a pitstop. When the German cars pitted, Moll took the lead for laps 10 and 11. Then Varzi took over at the front for laps 12 and 13 until his gearbox failed, allowing the Fagioli/Mercedes-Benz to lead, but chased by Moll in second place from lap 14 onwards. On lap 18 Moll’s car veered off the long, straight at about 260 kmh/160 mph and somersaulted, the driver being killed instantly.

Moll had shown such promise, that Enzo Ferrari likened him to Stirling Moss for his speed and racing presence of mind. His challenging of experienced team-mates Varzi and Chiron was similar to Ricciardo’s of Vettel, in that neither was arookie, Moll being into his third season, Ricciardo his fourth. Doubtless had Moll lived, he’d have been even more competitive in 1935, his fourth season.

There are several more examples of new drivers challenging and even beating established and more experienced team-mates.

1936 Bernd Rosemeyer
1935 ROOKIE ROSEMEYER CHALLENGES VARZI

In 1935 now-veteran Varzi, ‘Nuvolari’s equal’ according to then team-manager Enzo Ferrari, was into his eighth season, but was in for another challenge from a young driver when he left Alfa Romeo for Auto-Union. Varzi’s brilliance was displayed in his first race in the rear-engined V16 Auto-Union at the high speed Tripoli circuit when he finished a fine second to Caracciola’s Mercedes-Benz, the fastest package of 1935.

For the AVUS race in May Auto-Union veterans Varzi aged 31 and Stuck aged 36 were joined by 26-year-old ex-motorcyclist and Grand Prix rookie Bernd Rosemeyer. This circuit was the fastest of all, being formed by two 10 kilometre/6-mile lanes of a new autobahn, joined by a very steeply-banked turn at one end. Rookie Rosemeyer did well in his heat to qualify behind Stuck who averaged 260kmh/160 mph for pole. On lap 4 of 5 Rosemeyer’s car burst a rear tyre on the banking, but he brought it safely to a stop, which amazed Mercedes-Benz team manager Neubauer.
At the Eifel GP on the Nurburgring Rosemeyer displayed his exceptional talent by leading the race in the rain for the last few laps, only losing narrowly to ‘Rainmaster’ Caracciola’s Mercedes-Benz. In the next three races, the French and German GPs and the Coppa Acerbo at Pescara, Varzi and Stuck were faster than Rosemeyer, who managed a fine second place at Pescara. In the next, the Swiss GP, Rosemeyer finished third, Varzi fourth behind two Mercedes-Benz’s. At Monza Stuck won, Rosemeyer’ s car failed but he took team-mate Pietsch’s car and finished third behind the shared Dreyfus-Nuvolari Alfa Romeo. At the Spanish GP all three Auto-Unions gave trouble, but Rosemeyer did best, struggling in fifth after several pitstops. The season finale at Brno’s Masaryykring, in the absence of the Mercedes-Benz team, saw first Stuck then Varzi lead laps 1-5 and 5-12 of 17 until both cars gave trouble, allowing Rosemeyer past to win.

For a rookie to mix it with such tough, experienced drivers as Varzi and Stuck in the rear-engined V16 Auto-Union team was quite something. Not surprisingly Rosemeyer went on to become the fastest driver by 1937.

1908 Ralph de Palma
1908-1910 ROOKIE DE PALMA CHALLENGES NAZZARO AND WAGNER
Another great driver to be challenged by a rookie was the smooth, refined and fast Italian Felice Nazzaro, who had been driving for Fiat since 1905. He dominated the 1907 season. Yet at the American Grand Prize of 1908, rookie Ralph de Palma led from the start and set the race’s fastest lap, until after a pitstop to change tyres, the spare tyre cradle dragged on the road, dropping de Palma back. Team-mates Wagner and Nazzaro finished 1st and 3rd. Again invited to join the Fiat team for the 1910 American GP alongside Nazzaro and Wagner, de Palma joined in the close, lead-swopping fight between the Fiat and Benz teams. He was leading narrowly going into the last lap when his Fiat cracked a cylinder, allowing six cars past.
De Palma’s talent was obvious, to match and even upstage Nazzaro and Wagner clearly pointed to an exceptional talent. He continued to be a leading grand prix driver until 1921.

1912 David Bruce-Brown
1910-1912: BRUCE-BROWN CHALLENGES HEMERY, WAGNER AND DE PALMA

In the 1910 American Grand Prize 20 year-old rookie David Bruce-Brown joined the Benz team as team-mate to Hemery, the tough, 35-year-old ex-sailor who had debuted in 1905, and American Willie Haupt. In a close battle with the three Fiats, Hemery led laps 1-7 of 20, Haupt laps 9-13 while rookie Bruce-brown took the lead in the last quarter of the last lap to win by just 1.4-seconds after 5-hours and 53-minutes. The best rookie debut of all time?

For 1911 and 1912 Bruce-Brown joined the top-rated Fiat team, with team-mates Wagner, Bragg and de Palma. In the 1911 American GP Bruce-Brown won again, after Wagner and Brag had suffered car trouble. In the epic 1912 French GP, when the small, high-revving 7.6-litre/464 ci Peugeot toppled the big, 14.1-litre/860ci Fiat cars, Bruce Brown led from the start until a fuel line leaked and he ran out at lap 14.5 of 20, allowing the innovative Peugeot to win from Fiat team-mate Wagner.
Despite being such a brilliant driver, still only 22 years old, Bruce-Brown crashed fatally later that year practicing for the Vanderbilt Cup at Milwaukee, after a worn tyre burst. His mechanic Tony Scudelari also died.

1957: MOSS BEATS FANGIO

And now for a more modern pairing, Moss and Fangio for just one race together in the Maserati team for the 1957 Argentine GP. Only after doing my Rating System study in 2002 did I discover this phenomenon: that Moss was actually somewhat faster than Fangio! Sacreligious as it sounds, and despite general consensus that Fangio was supreme in GP cars, I wrote it up in detail elsewhere on my blog.

For the 1957 season opener Moss’s Vanwall team were not ready, and released Moss to drive for Maserati, alongside Fangio. Moss outqualified Fangio by a whole second for pole, but suffered a broken accelerator linkage on the grid. He spent nine laps at his pit for repairs, then charged back out, continually broke the lap record and made up two laps on ‘The Old Man’ who won. Having lost so much time, Moss still only managed to finish eighth.

Hereafter Moss went back to Vanwall for the rest of the 1957 season, which was a slower, more difficult-to-drive car than the Maserati.

According to my rating System, Moss was actually faster than Fangio from 1956 onwards; not surprising considering Moss was 28 and into his 7th season, and Fangio was 46. It was primarily Fangio’s superior cars (1956 Lancia-Ferrari and 1957 Maserati) that enabled him to beat Moss in those years.

RICCIARDO NOT UNIQUE

In the 120 year history of Grand Prix racing since 1894, there are several other examples of young drivers challenging and even beating established top-rated drivers in same-teams. Fernand Charron dominated his experienced Panhard team-mates in 1898; rookie Lancia driver Eugenio Castellotti challenged Ascari in 1955, and proved much faster than his experienced Lancia-Ferrari team-mates Collins and Hawthorn in 1956-7 (see separate feature in this blog).; rookie Jackie Stewart challenged his team-mate Graham Hill at BRM in 1965; in 1979 the young Gilles Villeneuve matched Jody Scheckter at Ferrari…

So it is clear that Ricciardo beating Vettel in 2014 is not a unique occurrence. Besides, meritorious as it is, unlike de Palma, Bruce-Brown, Rosemeyer, Stewart or Hamilton, Ricciardo is no rookie.


© Patrick O’Brien. Nothing from this page can be used without the permission of Patrick E. O’Brien.

***

Thursday 2 October 2014

1950-1959 SEASON SUMMARIES NOW AVAILABLE

After 12 years of development and refinement from its 2002 inception, my Rating System is being published. I have started with the Formula One era, 1950-2013, and divided it into decades for practical purposes.  Each ten-year period will be published separately. The seventh decade (1950-1959) is now available – see ‘Buy my Rating System’ above or click on the link below:

The seventh book contains the 1950-1959 seasons, is 91 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.


The sixth book contains the 1960-1969 seasons, is 82 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.


The fifth book contains the 1970-1979 seasons, is 90 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.


The fourth book contains the 1980-1989 seasons, is 81 pages, soft-cover bound and is available online here.


The third book contains the 1990-1999 seasons, is 80 pages, soft-cover bound and available online here.


The second book contains the 2010-2013 seasons, is 50 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.


The first book contains the 2000-2009 seasons, is 80 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.


A section entitled ‘Guidelines for interpreting my Rating System’ is included in all books which briefly explains my System.

Each season is in three sections, Package, Driver and Car, with the whole field rated and tabulated, and text discussing mainly the winners and the front-runners. My own illustrations are used, and reflect a spread of competitors for each season.

For those who are interested further, additional explanations can be found here: 



Monday 4 August 2014

1960-1969 SEASON SUMMARIES NOW AVAILABLE

After 12 years of development and refinement from its 2002 inception, my Rating System is being published. I have started with the Formula One era, 1950-2013, and divided it into decades for practical purposes.  Each ten-year period will be published separately. The fourth decade (1960-1969) is now available – see ‘Buy my Rating System’ above or click on the link below:

The sixth book contains the 1960-1969 seasons, is 82 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.


The fifth book contains the 1970-1979 seasons, is 90 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.


The fourth book contains the 1980-1989 seasons, is 81 pages, soft-cover bound and is available online here.


The third book contains the 1990-1999 seasons, is 80 pages, soft-cover bound and available online here.


The second book contains the 2010-2013 seasons, is 50 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.


The first book contains the 2000-2009 seasons, is 80 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.


A section entitled ‘Guidelines for interpreting my Rating System’ is included in all books which briefly explains my System.

Each season is in three sections, Package, Driver and Car, with the whole field rated and tabulated, and text discussing mainly the winners and the front-runners. My own illustrations are used, and reflect a spread of competitors for each season.

For those who are interested further, additional explanations can be found here:


***


Sunday 29 June 2014

1970-1979 SEASON SUMMARIES NOW AVAILABLE

After 12 years of development and refinement from its 2002 inception, my Rating System is being published. I have started with the Formula One era, 1950-2013, and divided it into decades for practical purposes.  Each ten-year period will be published separately. The third decade (1970-1979) is now available – see ‘Buy my Rating System’ above or click on the link below:

The fifth book contains the 1970-1979 seasons, is 90 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.


The fourth book contains the 1980-1989 seasons, is 81 pages, soft-cover bound and is available online here.


The third book contains the 1990-1999 seasons, is 80 pages, soft-cover bound and available online here.


The second book contains the 2010-2013 seasons, is 50 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.



The first book contains the 2000-2009 seasons, is 80 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.



A section entitled ‘Guidelines for interpreting my Rating System’ is included in both books which briefly explains my System.

Each season is in three sections, Package, Driver and Car, with the whole field rated and tabulated, and text discussing mainly the winners and the front-runners. My own illustrations are used, and do not necessarily show the fastest, top ranked competitors, but rather a spread for each season.

For those who are interested further, additional explanations can be found here:


***

Tuesday 17 June 2014

FORMULA ONE DRIVERS AND SPEED COMPARISONS: 1950-2013

ONLY PEAK: Farina 1950
If one were to list the World Driver Champions, and then compare with a list of those drivers considered ‘great’ there would be quite a few differences. One glaring example would be that Moss did not score a World Drivers Championship. If another list were made with those drivers considered the ‘fastest’, there would again be some differences. One would be that two drivers who were really fast, Gilles Villeneuve and Peterson, do not appear on the Driver Champions list. Yet another list ranking by Drivers Championship points scored would not tally with the other listings. Nor would a list of race-winners match.

All this points to the fact that Formula One racing is too complex a sport to easily analyse, rate, rank and compare drivers. The car is such a crucial factor in determining performance. After years of trying various comparative methods, I devised my Rating System in 2002. This is based on speed comparisons between drivers, the car having been ‘removed’ from the equation. Explanations of my Rating System methodology can be read elsewhere on this blog and in my recent publications.

FIRST PEAK: Ascari 1951
Throughout Grand Prix racing history one reads of certain driver characteristics: such as being very sensitive to car behaviour (Trulli 1997-2010 and Raikkonen 2010-2013), some having ‘soft hands’ (1905-1922) Fiat driver Nazzaro), others able to conserve tyres and fuel (Prost 1980-1993 and Button 2001-2014), some able to coax ailing cars to the finish (Clark 1960-1968 and Fittipaldi 1970-1980). Alfa Romeo chief mechanic (1918-1933) Giulio Ramponi told how gentle Antonio Ascari (twenties) and Nuvolari (thirties) were on their cars, tyres and brakes. Brabham’s chief designer (1973-1985) Gordon Murray said in 1983 that Piquet used less fuel and rubber than his team-mate Patrese. Today in 2014 we see that Hamilton uses less fuel than his Mercedes-Benz team-mate Nico Rosberg. These are distinguishing aspects of driving style.

SPEED
Above all such nuances, the over-riding factor is speed. All the great drivers won because of their superior speed. Speed in comparison to rivals and team-mates. As Eddie Irvine said of Michael Schumacher, his Ferrari team-mate (1996-1999): “He was quick and everything else came from that.” In the 1932 Targa Florio (8 laps of 71 km/miles each on rough, unsurfaced roads, for a race distance 571 km/355 miles and 7-hours 16-minutes duration) Alfa Romeo’s Ramponi told how Nuvolari used the same set of brakes for practice, race-led all the way to win, and that he was much faster than his second-placed team-mate Borzzachini, who used four sets! Reading of those ‘thinking’ great drivers Nazzaro, Caracciola, Fangio, Stewart and Prost ‘winning at the slowest possible speed’ gives the impression that they were cautious and perhaps not the fastest. Far from it; it was only because of their superior racing speed that they were, on occasion, able to slow down and win.

FIRST PEAK: Brabham 1959
Unlike the many popular ‘Greatest/Top 100/Fastest’ driver lists published by well-known authors, journals or compiled by panels of experts, I do not rank drivers lineally. Drivers from different eras cannot be directly compared. Rather I rank drivers in layers or tiers. This is based purely on their speed compared with the fastest driver of each season, as calculated by my Rating System (explained in more detail elsewhere on this blog and in my recent publications). Shown below are the drivers and the season that they first achieved their peak rating. Bear in mind these tiers are based purely on driver speeds; excluded are the package (car-and-driver), car, race results or official championship titles, points and places.

TIER ONE (16 drivers)
Fangio 1950, Ascari 1951, Moss 1956, Surtees 1961, Clark 1963, Stewart 1968, Lauda 1975, Villeneuve G 1981, Piquet snr 1982, Prost 1983, Senna 1986, Schumacher M 1995, Raikkonen 2005, Alonso 2005, Hamilton 2008, Vettel 2011.

Few could argue with these sixteen, who dominated or were considered to have been the fastest of their eras. All scored multiple wins and, except for two (Moss and Gilles Villeneuve), won at least one Drivers Championship. Surtees won only six races due to not having a fast-enough car for most of his career, somewhat like Alonso from 2008-2013.

TIER TWO (8 drivers)
Rindt 1970, Andretti Mario 1970, Peterson 1973, Reutemann 1978, Berger 1989, Hakkinen 1998, Schumacher R 2004, Montoya 2004.

Perhaps it is curious that so few drivers managed to come so close to the ultimate speed? Two examples were Rindt and Peterson, both exceptionally fast, but just shaded by the dominant driver of their era, Jackie Stewart. Berger is perhaps a surprise, but when up against his Ferrari team-mate Mansell at his peak in 1989, Berger was not outperformed for speed despite his huge crash and hand-burns at Imola. Ralf Schumacher has been overlooked partly because of his introverted personality. He really was very fast, outperforming or close-matching his more renowned and acknowledged Williams-BMW team-mate Montoya over four seasons (2001-2004).

TIER THREE (13 drivers)
Castellotti 1957, Brooks 1958, Amon 1970, Ickx 1971, Cevert 1973, Regazzoni 1976, Pironi 1982, Mansell 1988, Coulthard 1997, Barrichello 2002, Massa 2007, Button 2010, Kubica 2010, Rosberg N 2012.

The unacknowledged Eugenio Castellotti I compared directly against his famous Lancia team-leader Ascari for 1955 and then for 1956-7 against his much-publicised Ferrari team-mates Hawthorn and Collins. I found his performances to have been superior to Hawthorn's and Collins's, based purely on comparative track times. A separate post on this blog reveals in detail Castellotti’s pace and speed. Many will doubt Massa’s inclusion in this group, but in 2007 he matched Alonso, Hamilton and Raikkonen for speed when all had equally-matched cars, neither McLaren-Mercedes nor Ferrari displaying any car superiority. For those who doubted the de-retired Michael Schumacher’s pace from 2010-2012 and consequently Nico Rosberg’s, in 2013 Rosberg close-matched Hamilton for speed, and so far in 2014 has confirmed he is fast by racing so close to Hamilton.

ONLY PEAK: Rindt 1970
TIER FOUR (16 drivers)
Farina 1950, Villoresi 1950, Hunt 1976, Pace 1976, Arnoux 1982, Cheever 1983,Tambay 1983, Winkelhok Manfred 1984, Rosberg K 1985, Frentzen 1999, Trulli 2003, Fisichella 2005, Kovalainen 2008, Webber 2010, Grosjean 2012, Hulkenberg 2013.

Veterans Farina and Villoresi in their forties did well to be so fast when they faced the younger Fangio and Ascari. The cases of Cheever, Fisichella, Kovalainen and Grosjean could partly be ascribed to having top-rated team-mates, Prost, Alonso, Hamilton and Raikkonen respectively, in top-rate teams.

TIER FIVE (14 drivers)
Hawthorn 1958, Gurney 1964, Pryce 1976, Scheckter J 1977, Stuck H-J 1978, Jones 1979, Patrese 1982, Warwick 1984, Martini 1990, Modena 1991, Irvine 1999, Wurz 2008, Heidfeld 2007.

Of this Tier or group Martini and Modena showed instant speed, but neither had fast enough cars to improve further. Driver Champions Hawthorn, Scheckter and Jones, although some way off ultimate pace, were tough, experienced racers. Irvine came close to the Title but rival McLaren-Mercedes drivers Hakkinen and Coulthard and Ferrari team-mate Schumacher were just too fast for him.

TIER SIX (33 drivers)
Manzon 1950, Galvez 1953, Rolt 1953, Crook 1953, Collins 1957, Musso 1958, Brabham 1959, Menditeguy 1960, Von Trips 1960, Hill G 1962, Scarfiotti 1966, Hulme 1968, Redman 1971, Fittipaldi E 1972, Depailler 1977, Laffite 1979, Jabouille 1980, Watson 1981, Alboreto 1983, Boutsen 1990, Donnelly 1990, Alesi 1991, Hill D 1996, Herbert 1996, Villeneuve J 1997, Verstappen 2003, Davidson 2008, Piquet jnr 2008, Kobayashi 2011, di Resta 2012, Petrov 2012, Glock 2012, Maldonado 2013.

It was this Tier Six that I have found to generally be the slowest driver-rating limit for scoring wins and more success. Drivers any slower or further from the front only scored one or two wins. Many may question my inclusion of Nelson Piquet jnr here; however I have measured him directly against one of the two top drivers of the season, Renault team-mate Alonso. Piquet was found to be impressively fast for a rookie, despite having hardly any testing time.

FIRST PEAK: Alonso 2005 and Vettel 2011
FAST ENOUGH CAR ESSENTIAL
As explained elsewhere in this blog, my measurement and calculation of driver speeds do not necessarily coincide with nor are they based on race results or official championship points or places. A driver has to have a car fast enough to show his speed in race results. Even the fastest drivers almost always had the fastest cars when dominating. Prime example of a top-rated driver whose race results obscured his driver-speed is Surtees. He raced for 13 years (1960-1972) yet scored only six wins. This was because he enjoyed a top-rated car for only the four races in his rookie part-season 1960, and again for just the first two races of 1966. For the rest of his career Surtees drove off-pace cars. Consequently his talent, skill and hard work did not show in bare results. Race results form strong perceptions. Such that top cars can make lesser drivers appear superior and slower cars can damage a driver’s reputation, as we are seeing with the talented and fast Romain Grosjean in 2014.

DIRECT COMPARISONS?
Each driver’s speed I have listed above here was measured and scored on my Rating System within each particular season, and calculated as season-averages, using the fastest as the benchmark. Therefore it is not possible to directly compare top-rated Fangio in 1950-1954 with top-rated Alonso in 2008-2013, other than to say that each achieved the ultimate speed of his respective season/s. My Rating System does show the time gap that each driver raced from the fastest. For example one could not say that Manzon in 1950 and Maldonado in 2013 were equal in speed, only that they raced at the same gap from the fastest driver/s of their day. The ‘tiers’ or groupings above do not mean the drivers within each are equal, just that they raced at the same gap from the fastest of their day. Unless of course a group includes two or more drivers from the same season/s, in which case they can be considered equal in speed. In the six tiers above, I have presented several pairs of drivers who equal-speed-rated in the same season.

The 101 drivers listed here comprise most of the Formula One race winners from 1950 to 2013, ranked in groups or tiers according to their speed from the fastest each season.


© Patrick O’Brien. Nothing from this page can be used without the permission of Patrick E. O’Brien.

***

Friday 25 April 2014

1980-1989 SEASON SUMMARIES NOW AVAILABLE

After 12 years of development and refinement from its 2002 inception, my Rating System is being published. I have started with the Formula One era, 1950-2013, and divided it into decades for practical purposes.  Each ten-year period will be published separately. The seventh decade (2010-2013) is now available – see ‘Buy my Rating System’ above or click on the link below:

The fourth book contains the 1980-1989 seasons, is 81 pages, soft-cover bound
and available now online here.


The third book contains the 1990-1999 seasons, is 80 pages, soft-cover bound and available online here.


The second book contains the 2010-2013 seasons, is 50 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.


The first book contains the 2000-2009 seasons, is 80 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.


A section entitled ‘Guidelines for interpreting my Rating System’ is included in both books which briefly explains my System.

Each season is in three sections, Package, Driver and Car, with the whole field rated and tabulated, and text discussing mainly the winners and the front-runners. My own illustrations are used, and do not necessarily show the fastest, top ranked competitors, but rather a spread for each season. 

For those who are interested further, additional explanations can be found here:



***

Wednesday 23 April 2014

1990-1999 SEASON SUMMARIES NOW AVAILABLE

After 12 years of development and refinement from its 2002 inception, my Rating System is being published. I have started with the Formula One era, 1950-2013, and divided it into decades for practical purposes.  Each ten-year period will be published separately. The Nineties is now available – see ‘Buy my Rating System’ above or click on the link below:

The third book contains the 1990-1999 seasons, is 80 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here.


The second book contains the 2010-2013 seasons, is 50 pages, soft-cover bound and available online here.


The first book contains the 2000-2009 seasons, is 80 pages, soft-cover bound and available online here.


A section entitled ‘Guidelines for interpreting my Rating System’ is included in both books which briefly explains my System.

Each season is in three sections, Package, Driver and Car, with the whole field rated and tabulated, and text discussing mainly the winners and the front-runners. My own illustrations are used, and do not necessarily show the fastest, top ranked competitors, but rather a spread for each season. 

For those who are interested further, additional explanations can be found here:



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Tuesday 4 February 2014

2010-2013 SEASON SUMMARIES NOW AVAILABLE

After 12 years of development and refinement from its 2002 inception, my Rating System is being published. I have started with the Formula One era, 1950-2013, and divided it into decades for practical purposes. 

Each ten-year period will be published separately. The seventh decade (2010-2013) is now available – see ‘Buy my Rating System’ above or click on the link below:

The second book contains the 2010-2013 seasons, is 50 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here:

The first book contains the 2000-2009 seasons, is 80 pages, soft-cover bound and available now online here:


A section entitled ‘Guidelines for interpreting my Rating System’ is included in both books which briefly explains my System.

Each season is in three sections, Package, Driver and Car, with the whole field rated and tabulated, and text discussing mainly the winners and the front-runners. My own illustrations are used, and do not necessarily show the fastest, top ranked competitors, but rather a spread for each season. 

For those who are interested further, additional explanations can be found here:


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Friday 31 January 2014

CAN GREAT DRIVERS BE IDENTIFIED IN THEIR ROOKIE SEASON?

The story of how fast Michael Schumacher was on his debut race for Jordan-Cosworth in the 1991 Belgian GP at Spa is well-known. Instant and exceptional speed. The same went for Ayrton Senna for Toleman-Hart in 1984. These two future top-raters and champions were noticeably faster than their team-mates. They were obviously special. Lewis Hamilton debuted for McLaren-Mercedes in 2007 and performed at the same level as his established, twice-World Champion team-mate, Fernando Alonso, who was into his sixth season.
Senna 1984
Schumacher 1991
Vettel 2007

I collated the debut season driver-ratings as scored on my Rating System to determine how often this ‘instantly-fast’ rookie phenomenon occurred. My 1894-2013 spreadsheet and season tables showed that the majority of star-drivers shone in their first season.


'SAMPLE SIZE'

First I highlighted in my season tables those drivers who attained the ultimate driver rating of 100.0 or attained the highest rating in that season/era. I then went back to their rookie season to see what their rating was then. There were 48 ‘star drivers’ from 1894-2013, as decided by their racing achievements and acknowledged greatness and by my Rating System (which measures them throughout their career, not only their rookie season). Thirty-two of 48 great drivers (67%) started within the 100.5 to 100.8 bracket; 16 of the 48 (33%) were faster (between 100.0 and 100.4), and only one, Lauda, was much slower than all here (for example, in his first full season, in 1972, he driver-rated at 101.6).


METHODOLOGY

My workings and calculation method were not done retrospectively. Each season was treated in isolation; the drivers were measured and scored against their team-mates and peer rivals within each season. Of course, my driver selection now is done retrospectively with hindsight, knowing who the great drivers have been.

My rookie-season driver-rating stats have been surprisingly even over the 120 years of grand prix racing history from 1894 to 2013.


Caracciola 1926
Chiron 1927
Rosemeyer 1935

Bear in mind that the fastest, benchmark driver-rating is 100.0 on my System, and that 100.1 is 0.1% slower, 100.2 is 0.2% slower, 101.0 is 1.0% slower and so on. For 2013, my Rating System scored Alonso and Vettel equal top-rated at 100.0. Some Champion Drivers did not rate at the ultimate 100.0, such as Damon Hill, Jacques Villeneuve who at their peaks scored 100.5. Jack Brabham, Graham Hill and Emerson Fittipaldi also peak driver-rated at 100.5. Hawthorn, Scheckter and Jones peaked at 100.4. Hunt’s best was 100.3, while Mansell and Button peak driver-rated at 100.2, Hakkinen at 100.1. My System measures and scores drivers based on comparative speeds only, and takes no account whatsoever of the official championships, points or placings.

ROOKIE DRIVER-RATINGS FROM THE FORMULA ONE ERA (1950-2013)

Taking the greatest drivers of the Formula One era, 1950-2013, who debuted at similar driver-rating figures by my System:

· Alberto Ascari debuted in 1940 in a privately-owned Maserati to driver-rate at 100.7.
· Fangio’s first major Grand Prix appearance was at age 36 in 1948 driving for Gordini-Simca when he driver-rated at 100.7.
· Moss started aged 21 in 1951 to driver-rate at 101.0, but he only appeared twice; he then rated at 100.8 in 1952 when he competed more often.
· Hawthorn rated at 100.8 in 1952 when he drove a well-prepared Cooper-Bristol.
· Surtees scored 100.7 in 1960 driving a Lotus-Climax for just four races.
· Stewart started at 100.8 when debuting as team-mate to the experienced and competitive Graham Hill for BRM in 1965.
· Andretti on his first appearance equalled Lotus-Cosworth team-mate and twice-World Champion Graham Hill in 1968, to rate at 100.5.
· Gilles Villeneuve only raced once in 1977, but for his first full season with Ferrari in 1978 scored 100.8.
· Prost famously outpaced his fast and experienced McLaren-Cosworth team-mate Watson on his debut in 1980, rating at 100.5.
· Senna scored 100.7 in his debut season for Toleman-Hart in1984.
· Schumacher driver-rated at 100.8 in 1991 for Eddie Jordan’s new Jordan-Cosworth team.
· Hakkinen driver-rated at 100.7 for Lotus-Cosworth in 1992.
· Raikkonen driver-rated at 100.7 debuting for the Sauber-Ferrari team in 2001. He was slightly faster than his promising and more experienced team-mate Heidfeld in 2001.
· Alonso shone at 100.7 at the same driver-rating as Raikkonen. This despite driving a slow, backmarker Minardi-Cosworth in 2001.
· Hamilton amazed everyone at his 2007 debut by equal-rating at 100.2 with his illustrious McLaren-Mercedes team-mate Alonso. He was probably the best-prepared F1 driver, having been coached and supported by the McLaren team since his teenage years and spent many pre-season hours in the simulator. An exceptional performance.
· Vettel was first noticed by the media when he won the wet 2008 Italian GP for Toro Rosso-Ferrari. However my System driver-rated him a season earlier in 2007 at 100.7. This was despite him driving only the last seven races of the season.

These are 16 of the greatest Formula One drivers, all of whom went on to top, driver-rate and /or score World Championships. At the time many others driver-rated at about the same figures of 100.5 to 100.8, but none were rookies.

Clark 1960
Lauda 1971
Piquet 1978

The only other really great F1 drivers who do not appear on the above list are Clark, Lauda and Piquet. This is because their rookie-season driver-ratings were slower than the 100.5-100.8 range that is the norm for great drivers in their rookie seasons. Below I offer some possible explanations for these three surprising cases.

To compile the above list, I was working strictly to a narrow range of driver-ratings (of 100.5-100.8, as derived from the data) as scored on my tables and spreadsheet to within one-hundredths of a second differences. That is why these three were left out.

There are however explanations for two of these outliers which show that they did in fact conform to the fast-starting rookie driver-ratings.

· Clark debuted at a driver-rating of 101.0 for his six of nine appearances in 1960. He drove part-time for Lotus-Climax. Clark was occasionally cautious (or sensible) as a person, and was up against three faster and more experienced drivers in same cars for 1960: Moss, Surtees and Ireland. The next year 1961 Clark raced at 100.5.

· Lauda debuted in 1971 for just one race in an ill-prepared March-Cosworth and driver-rated at a very slow 104.9! He improved in 1972 after a full season with the March team to driver-rate at 101.6. Still no sign of greatness. In 1973, for BRM, Lauda’ technical and applicational skills started to show as he scored 100.7. This was a uniquely slow start for one who was to join the greats!

· Piquet raced just four times in 1978, three in an old-model McLaren-Cosworth and once in a Brabham-Alfa Romeo, to driver-rate at 101.8. In 1979 Piquet drove full-time for Brabham and driver-rated at the future-star ‘norm’ of 100.7.

None of these ratings was calculated or compared against drivers of other eras, nor against each other. I scored each season-by-season against their peers. Yet the results have been amazingly similar; including Clark and Piquet, 14 of the 16 debutants scored between 100.5 and 100.8.

This is a surprisingly close range considering the differences in fields, cars, technologies, races and formats over the 64 Formula One seasons.

The spread of 0.3% represents 0.3-second in a qualifying lap or 18-seconds in a 60-lap race of 100-minutes. Additionally these drivers were usually not front-runners and raced further back, some in the midfield.

What accounts for this level of accuracy is that my System measures and scores each driver against the fastest driver of each season, i.e., those that top-rate at or close to the stable, benchmark factor of 100.0. Only two of the above-listed 16 stand out in their rookie season performances: Hamilton faster at 100.2 and Lauda much slower.


ROOKIE DRIVER-RATINGS FROM THE PRE-FORMULA ONE ERA (1894-1949)

Going back to Grand Prix beginnings, in 1894, the same 100.5 to 100.8 pattern is found.

Charron 1898
Fournier 1901
Nazzaro 1904

Among the over 30 instantly-fast rookies are such greats as: Charron 1897, Levegh 1899, Nazzaro 1904,Wishart 1909, Anderson 1911, Andre Boillot 1919, Antonio Ascari1923, Benoist 1924, Caracciola 1926, Chrion1927, Nuvolari 1928 and Rosemeyer 1935. All debuted within this fast and very close 100.5 to 100.8 range.
         
Ralph de Palma 1908
David Bruce-Brown 1901
Antonio Ascari 1923

THE FASTEST DEBUTANT DRIVERS 1894-2013

Hamilton’s debut driver-rating of 100.2 stands out as the fastest among the 16 rookies of the Formula One era 1950-2013. However, in the earlier grand prix era, from 1894-1949, several debut drivers started at even faster rookie driver-ratings than Hamilton did: Henri Fournier in 1901, Théry, Albert Clement and Lancia in 1904, Baras and Salzer in 1906, de Palma in 1908, Sailer in 1914, Bordino in 1921 to Arcangeli in 1930.

Doubtless there are reasons for each, such as prior experience in highly-competitive prior grand prix-type races or classes below Grand Prix level, much as Fangio had done. As well of course as superior talent and aptitude.


SIMILAR DRIVER-RATINGS

The fact that two-thirds of these 48 greatest drivers (67%) started their careers at a similar ‘gap’ from the fastest, established stars demonstrates that my Rating System is more than ‘just personal opinion’. It indicates that this must be a fairly accurate method of driver-rating.


CONCLUSION

QUESTION:

mds wrote:

Patrick, as always, a great read and valuable information. Thank you for that.

However I don't think the starting question is answered in your blog post. The question that is being answered is more "Were the greats also fast as a rookie?". It takes the later periods of driver ratings as a starting point, then looks back at their starting seasons. To really answer the question "Can future stars be identified?" a correlation could be made starting from the rookie rating of each driver, and then go on to see if the fastest go on to become stars/greats.

Maybe an idea for a future blog post?

ANSWER:

Thanks MDS and Fiki, you are both right: I did not answer my title question because I can't.

Drivers such as Alesi and J Villeneuve came in at a high performance level, but did not go on to become 'great' or top-rated for various reasons.

What surprised me was the fair consistency of the rookie season driver-ratings for about two-thirds of the 'great' drivers.



© Patrick O’Brien. Nothing from this page can be used without the permission of Patrick E. O’Brien.

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